The May 6 primary split - Surprise, yet no surprise

Although Real Clear Politics showed Hillary with an averaged 5 point lead over Barack in Indiana, Hillary actually won with a 2 point lead. In contrast, Hillary lost to Barack in NC with a 14 point deficit. While we saw the gap closing in both states in the days leading up to the primaries, the only surprise is that there was a double digit gap between Hillary and Barack in NC. The Real Clear Politics average was 8 points with only 2 out of 7 polls showing double digits.

The real question is why was Hillary able to close the gap for a win in Indiana, but not in North Carolina? Although NC has a large technology sector, there is also an abundance of blue collar workers. With the negative comments that Barack made about blue collar workers in PA, it surprises me that they still sided with him in NC. Hillary also tends to pick up the Hispanic vote and NC has a substantial Hispanic population.

Let's take a look at some data for both NC and IN:

NC Hispanic population percentage as of 2006: 6.7%
NC African American population percentage as of 2006: 21.7%
NC Caucasian (not Hispanic) population percentage as of 2006: 67.9%

IN Hispanic population percentage as of 2006: 4.8%
IN African American population percentage as of 2006: 8.9%
IN Caucasian (not Hispanic) population percentage as of 2006: 83.9%

For comparison, let's also look at PA:

PA Hispanic population percentage as of 2006: 4.2%
PA African American population percentage as of 2006: 10.7%
PA Caucasian (not Hispanic) population percentage as of 2006: 82.1%

Looking at this data it seems to become clear how Hillary was able to win IN and PA, but not NC. Looking at the data, it might not be mere coincidence that the difference in African American population (roughly 13%) between IN and NC accounts for the 14 point lead that Barack acquired in NC. Thus, although NC does have a slightly higher Hispanic population than IN and PA, it was not enough to overcome the African American vote.

The question now is should Hillary continue the nomination contest with Barack? Although I am sure that the superdelegates will put pressure on Hillary to drop out, I strongly feel that she should continue. Why? Howard Dean and the DNC still have yet to decide the fate of MI and FL. Hillary won both states with large margins in the initial primaries. Therefore, even if MI and FL have to redo their primaries, I think Hillary has a good shot at winning again. Yes, a do-over could create a real mess. I really don't like the idea. However, Barack and the African American population would probably complain if this were not done. So, I say let them do it. Barack will still lose in both states. I am confident of that. Had Howard Dean and the DNC resolved the FL/MI primaries issue in February or March, Hillary might have had more momentum at this point. However, I still think she could win the nomination by a razor thin lead by the time of the Democratic National Convention.